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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-29T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-29T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31200/-1
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature observed for this CME at L1. Large, bright partial halo CME to east in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is the X1.4 class flare from AR13697 with associated moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and GOES SUVI 284. Additionally, a thin filament ejecta was visible during the eruption as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Post-eruptive arcades followed the flare as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 171.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-01T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:2024-05-29 19:05UT
Radial velocity (km/s):822
Longitude (deg):-61
Latitude (deg):-3
Half-angular width (deg):48

Notes:mainly eastward directed

Lead Time: 51.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-05-30T05:00Z

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